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CFP Semifinals: What’s the appeal of Michigan vs. Alabama?
USA TODAY Sports’ Dan Wolken previews Alabama vs. Michigan and explains why it should be a thrilling College Football Playoff.
Michigan. Washington. Texas. Alabama. How these four teams overcame twists, turns, upsets, and unpredictability to reach the College Football Playoffs tells the story of the regular season.
The Wolverines had to get past Penn State and Ohio State. Washington had to beat Oregon twice. Texas had to beat Alabama, and Alabama had to beat Georgia.
But these matchups weren’t the only ones that determined the makeup of this year’s national semifinals. To get here, the quartet needed a boost from Power Five games, including a 45-point win over a Championship Subdivision opponent that could be the most important result of the year.
Looking back over the past three-plus months, here are the games that had the biggest impact on the playoffs.
September 9: 10th Texas 34, 3rd Alabama 24
The Longhorns dominated this contest, setting the tone for the program’s most successful year in more than a decade. The loss didn’t keep Alabama out of the playoffs, but the win gave Texas the boost it needed to finish in the top four. Even if they had moved up from there, the road loss to the Crimson Tide would likely have knocked the Longhorns out of the top four in favor of Florida State.
September 23: 12th Alabama 24, 16th Mississippi 10
After losing to the Longhorns and struggling to eliminate South Florida, this win over the Rebels was the catalyst that led Alabama to the SEC Championship. The win also marked the return of Jalen Milroe to the starting lineup after missing one game. Two losses in September would likely eliminate the Tide from playoff contention and hand the SEC West spot to either the Rebels or LSU, marking the low point of the program’s dynasty under Nick Saban. Dew.
Nov. 4: 1st Georgia 30, 16th Missouri 21
This was Georgia’s closest call of the season before losing the SEC Championship to the Tide. A win for Missouri State would have taken home the SEC East, which would have set off a series of pretty significant dominoes. Alabama wouldn’t have played Georgia in December and wouldn’t have won enough to turn the tide. A top-four finish could have an impact on Florida State and Texas’ postseason destinations.
Nov. 4: 6th place Texas 33, Kansas 30
This wasn’t Kansas State’s only close call in conference play, Houston, TCU and Iowa State were also there, but Texas was the one with the most close calls. Kansas State had a chance to win in overtime, but they just couldn’t get it going. Score from the rim of the Texas end zone. This wasn’t a blowout loss, but a win that sealed another restart that would lead the Longhorns to the playoffs.
Nov. 4: Oklahoma State 27th, Oklahoma 24th, 11th
The upset in this rivalry eliminated Oklahoma from playoff contention and made things a little easier for Texas. The Texas lost to the Sooners in October and were able to tie a friendly against the Cowboys in the championship game — as evidenced by the Longhorns’ 49-21 rout earlier this month. But at the time, this seemed like a setback. Texas is hungry for a rematch with Oklahoma, and could have impressed the playoff selection committee if they could avenge their previous loss. But Alabama ended up taking care of the Longhorns.
Nov. 11: No. 2 Michigan 24, No. 9 Penn State 15
This was Michigan’s first foray against a fellow playoff contender after breezed through two months of playing against a motley collection of unimpressive and overly competitive teams. Things went well. Penn State was unable to gain a foothold at the line of scrimmage and was bulldozed in the second half. The Wolverines didn’t attempt a pass after about the midway point of the second quarter, laying the groundwork for being considered the best team in the country. Following an earlier loss to Ohio State, the Nittany Lions were removed from the playoff bracket.
Nov. 18: 4th place Florida State 58, North Alabama 13
Everything changed for Florida State and the entire playoff conversation on the third drive of the game when Jordan Travis was awkwardly taken down at the end of a 17-yard run and suffered a severe season-ending leg injury. FSU ended the season by defeating Florida and Louisville, but the damage was done. The committee was unfazed by those two wins and the Seminoles’ undefeated record, resulting in a belated fall from the top four. In the most controversial decision of the playoff era, the committee favored Alabama over an FSU team that struggled offensively behind backup quarterbacks Tate Rodemaker and Brock Glenn.
Nov. 25: No. 3 Michigan 30, No. 2 Ohio State 24
Another highly hyped rivalry ended in Michigan’s favor, leaving the Buckeyes outside of the playoff discussion and hoping for a complicated upset in the final weekend of the regular season. That won’t happen for Ohio State, who will instead face Missouri State in the Cotton Bowl. In the end, the win likely sealed Michigan’s playoff berth, but the Wolverines sealed the deal a week later against Iowa.
December 1: 3rd place Washington 34, 5th place Oregon 31
This rematch surpasses the previous matchup between the teams, which was also won by Washington, as the committee respected the Pac-12 and meant the winner of the conference championship game would advance to the playoffs. Just like in October, the Huskies stayed calm and converted in key moments to keep Oregon at bay and earn the team’s two strongest wins this season. The only thing that separated the Ducks from the semifinals and potentially the No. 1 seed were two losses to the same opponent by a total of six points.
Dec. 2: 8th Alabama 27, 1st Georgia 24
This was the most incredible in-season run in recent Power Five history. After being buried in September, the Crimson Tide overcame the shock and were back in playoff contention by November. But they needed to defeat the two-time defending national champions and end a 29-game winning streak in the process. In most other years in the playoff era, Georgia would have lost and stayed in the top four. However, the Bulldogs were unable to overcome the plethora of options the committee had at its disposal.
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